I have followed Doug Short for a number of years now via some of his graphs posted on Calculated Risk. I especially love the fact that he has compared the crash of 1929, with the 1973 oil crisis, the 2000 tech crash, and the 2007 financial crash in a nice visualization.

Recently he has been taking a look at the growth in the Federal Debt, and comparing it with the tax structure in the United States. In the linear chart, we can see that debt is increasing, without bound it seems. He has also plotted a log scale version as well. There seems to be a disconnect between tax rates and the level of debt.

He then asks a very pertinent question. How accurate are the government’s forecasts about the future debt? If the government is accurate in its estimation of future debt, then we can trust these charts fairly well. However, if the government is usually off the mark, then we really cannot trust the forecasts for future debt. The resulting visualization is very illuminating:

These federal debt forecasts confirm we what already know — 2008 was a major economic turning point, a metaphoric fork in the road. However, the chart helps us quantify the magnitude of the new direction. The current 2015 forecast of a 19.68 Trillion debt is about 46% higher than the equivalent point (about 13.5 Trillion) on the road not taken.

via dshort.com: Federal Taxes and Debt.