IoT Will Drive Consumer Tech Industry to $287 Billion in Revenues, an All-Time High, According to Consumer Technology Association

CES® 2016, the Consumer Electronics Show that, as of the past 2 years, has expanded beyond the the Las Vegas Convention Center, into so many hotel ballrooms it has become impossible for one person to cover completely (believe me, I have tried!) has been wrangling with how to divide and conquer the inroads of tech in more than just “tech”.

It’s not laptops, smart phones, gaming devices anymore; Ford, Audi, and other car manufacturers are offering “consumer tech” in standard package vehicles, if you can wear it you can put a sensor on it or in it, and the Jetson’s automated home can be found on the CES show floor.

(To learn more visit https://petnet.io/smartbowl.)

Do you need to connect up to 22 Bluetooth devices to something? There’s a device for that. Don’t laugh, with the proliferation of IoT devices in the home, you just might—Did you watch the video above on the SmartBowl for your pet? While bandwidth throttling and preferential (meaning “faster”) service are still issues under legislative scrutiny, and Samsung is promising that the security of their system meant to control your IoT-filled home via one smart TV-like device will be flawless, the parade of 4K (UHD) screens, in-home wireless signal extenders and amplifiers, and devices with displays of every size are endless. Wearables are but subset of the IoT craze; it’s mostly showing up as products like the Apple Watch (no Apple in sight at CES, by the way), and the Health and Fitness market (yes, that’s a market) is diving in (no pun intended) to putting sensors into wearables beyond the first generation FitBits and Nike wrist bands. And let’s not forget the software, with community-based apps around these devices springing up and hoping for high spots in App Stores.

By the way, Google Glass v2 didn’t make it out the gate in time for CES; perhaps Google is following Apple’s lead in ignoring this show to focus on their own ability to have a flashy release without the noise of other competitive products. However, their driverless car isn’t the only entry now, and Ford’s Smart LInk Technology has been adopted by Toyota.

We still love Drones… but is that all?

While attempting to pick the latest and greatest are completely subjective, the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) has released a report timed to the CES show, with a strong affirmation that consumers will be buying tech wrapped up into plenty of other formerly non-tech-centric items; particularly for the home.

Here’s the story from CTA as they see it; notice that the darling of media, the drone, isn’t the only breakthrough tech to watch; VR (Virtual Reality) headsets, most likely the next frontier for gamers, will have a big play in 2016, and, for some reason, 3D printing, which still isn’t really a standard piece of technology found in many, much less most, homes, is still in focus as a growing sector.

Samsung’s New Smart Hub

Although it might seem odd that they expect “revenue for the overall TV market to not increase this year” I’m not quite sure if they are considering all of the content being watched over tablets, phones and laptops (YouTube, Amazon, Netflix, etc) is in those numbers. It’s getting very blurry to define what is “TV” and what isn’t anymore.

Here’s the report from the Consumer Technology Association:

The ever-expanding adoption and continued growth of innovations comprising the Internet of Things (IoT) will help lead the U.S. consumer technology industry to a record-setting $287 billion in retail revenues ($224 billion wholesale) in 2016, according to the Consumer Technology Association (CTA)™, formerly the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)®. CTA unveiled the latest version of its semi-annual industry report, U.S. Consumer Technology Sales and Forecasts, on the eve of CES® 2016, the world’s gathering place for all who thrive on the business of consumer technology, running Jan. 6-9 in Las Vegas, NV.

“Aggressive competition, longer product replacement cycles and disruptive innovation replacing legacy products create financial challenges for segments of our industry”

Well-established technologies including smartphones, televisions and laptops will continue to drive U.S. retail revenues and lead to one percent industry growth in 2016. While these categories – together with tablets and desktops – account for 51 percent of the consumer tech industry’s revenue, the catalysts for industry growth are newer innovations such as wearables, virtual reality and drones.

“2016 will be another great year for consumers. As more products become connected, we’ll be able to manage our lives in ways that weren’t possible even just a few years ago,” said Gary Shapiro, president and CEO, Consumer Technology Association. “The exponential growth of the IoT and the lightning-fast speed of innovation are key reasons we’ll see such strong growth across so many tech categories. Highly sophisticated technology is becoming more affordable and accessible – improving our safety, productivity and entertainment.”

While CTA forecasts overall industry growth in 2016, the strong household penetration of mature categories, such as tablets, televisions, PCs and laptops, and continued industry innovation are declining or slowing growth and placing pressure on margins for some manufacturers and retailers. For example, despite a projected 65 percent increase in revenue for Ultra High-Definition TVs in 2016, CTA expects revenue for the overall TV market to not increase this year.

“Aggressive competition, longer product replacement cycles and disruptive innovation replacing legacy products create financial challenges for segments of our industry,” noted Shapiro. “However, we believe newer categories, continuing innovation and improving economic conditions provide additional cause for industry optimism.”

CTA’s consensus forecast reflects U.S. factory sales to dealers and covers more than 300 tech products. The semi-annual report serves as a benchmark for the consumer technology industry, charting the size and growth of underlying categories.

IoT Drives Industry Growth

Video and Audio: IoT connectivity is transforming core consumer tech categories. In video, smart TVs are projected to sell 27 million units in 2016, a 13 percent increase over 2015, and streaming media players will sell 15.8 million units (five percent increase). Connected speakers and wireless headphones are the standout categories in audio. Unit sales of Bluetooth/Airplay-capable speakers are expected to reach 17.4 million units in 2016 – a 40 percent increase – and $1.5 billion in revenue, while sales of wireless headphones will reach 3.9 million in unit sales (increasing 30 percent),and $623 million in revenue.
Smart Home: CTA expects the smart home technology category – including smart thermostats, smart smoke and CO2 detectors, IP/Wi-Fi cameras, smart locks, smart home systems, and smart switches, dimmers and outlets – to reach 8.9 million units sold in 2016 (a 21 percent increase), with $1.2 billion in revenue.
Wearables: Led by the popularity of fitness activity trackers and smart watches, unit sales among all wearables in 2016 are forecast to reach 38.4 million units. Fitness activity tracker volumes will hit 17.4 million units in 2016 – a 12 percent increase from 2015 – with revenues reaching $1.3 billion. Smart watches are expected to increase 28 percent to 13.6 million units, earning $3.7 billion in revenue, an increase of 22 percent.

Tech Sales Leaders

Smartphones: As the dominant sales category in the industry, smartphone unit shipments are projected to reach 183 million this year, up five percent from 2015. Smartphone revenues will reach $55 billion in 2016, a four percent increase from last year.
Tablets: After significant growth and wide adoption over the past five years, tablet sales will continue to decline in 2016. CTA projects unit sales to reach 60 million this year, a nine percent decrease from 2015. Revenues are expected to hit $18 billion, down 12 percent.
Televisions: After a banner year of sales growth in 2015 that saw LCD TV shipments climb 10 percent to top 39 million units, the TV market should reach a steady state in 2016. CTA projects revenues will reach $19 billion for all TV sets and displays in 2016, on par with 2015, as volumes drop one percent to just under 40 million units. 2016 will be a phenomenal year for 4K Ultra High-Definition (UHD) TVs – driven in part by the market introduction of next-generation technologies – with shipments of 4K UHD displays projected to reach 13 million units (an 83 percent increase). CTA expects revenue from 4K UHD displays in 2016 to top $10 billion, marking a 65 percent increase.
Laptops: Unit shipments of traditional laptops are estimated to reach 27.6 million units in 2016, a two percent increase over 2015. Increasing sales of 2-in-1 computers (including both convertible laptops and detachable tablets) will drive this category’s growth, with 11.7 million units sold in 2016 (48 percent growth over last year) and $8 billion in revenue.

Tech Sectors to Watch

Drones: CTA expects U.S. sales of drones weighing more than 250 grams – the minimum for FAA-mandated registration – to reach one million units in 2016, a 145 percent increase from 2015’s total. When adding drones weighing 250 grams or less to those totals, the total forecast for 2016 drone sales tops 2.8 million units (up 149 percent from 2015) and $953 million in shipment revenues (a 115 percent increase from last year).
Virtual Reality (VR): With several notable VR headsets coming to market in 2016, CTA expects unit sales to increase by 500 percent over last year, to reach 1.2 million units sold. Total revenues are projected to reach $540 million, a 440 percent increase.
3D Printing: An expanding diversity of 3D printing capabilities will drive the sector’s growth in 2016. CTA expects 3D printer sales to increase 64 percent from 2015, to reach 179,000 units sold, with total revenues of $152 million, a 38 percent increase.

“We are at a time when new tech categories can come out of seemingly nowhere and lead to disruption in the blink of an eye,” said Shawn DuBravac, Ph.D., chief economist and senior director of research, CTA. “Digitization is rapidly changing the landscape of our daily lives, and consumers are clearly choosing to infuse tech in all facets of their lives. As economic fundamentals improve – a strengthened labor market, solid consumer spending, lower energy prices – the tech industry’s bottom line will continue to surpass record unit and revenue levels in 2016.”

The U.S. Consumer Technology Sales and Forecasts is published twice a year, in January and July, reporting U.S. factory sales-to-dealers. It was designed and formulated by CTA, the most comprehensive source of sales data, forecasts, consumer research and historical trends for the consumer technology industry. Please cite any information to the Consumer Technology Association (CTA)^TM. The complete report is available for free to CTA member companies at members.CTA.tech – non-members may purchase the study for $2,000 in the CTA Store. For more information, visit CTA.tech/salesandforecasts.

About Consumer Technology Association:

Consumer Technology Association (CTA)^TM, formerly Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)^®, is the trade association representing the $287 billion U.S. consumer technology industry. More than 2,200 companies – 80 percent are small businesses and startups; others are among the world’s best known brands – enjoy the benefits of CTA membership including policy advocacy, market research, technical education, industry promotion, standards development and the fostering of business and strategic relationships. CTA also owns and produces CES^® – the world’s gathering place for all who thrive on the business of consumer technology. Profits from CES are reinvested into CTA’s industry services.